Lumber, drywall and steel one month after the counter tariffs: what has happened to material prices

Canada's counter tariffs on American building products took effect on September 8. At the time we wrote that prices at the counter would follow with a lag. Five weeks on, there is enough fresh data to see where that is happening and where it is not. The short version: framing lumber has barely moved, sheet goods are up, and drywall and steel are where London renovation budgets will feel it this winter.

Framing lumber: calm so far

Natural Resources Canada tracks wholesale prices every week. For the week of October 2, eastern spruce, pine and fir 2x4s sold for $570 per thousand board feet, down from $575 the week before and only slightly above the 52 week average of $565. That is the grade most London framing lumber comes from.

Other measures agree. Madison's Lumber Reporter put western SPF 2x4s at US$464 in late September, down 5% from a month earlier, and its overall price index slipped to US$500 for the week of October 9 from US$514 a month before. Lumber futures closed at US$533 on October 9, about 8% lower than a month ago, according to Trading Economics.

Why no jump? Canada makes far more softwood lumber than it uses, so a 25% tariff on American lumber touches very little of what local yards sell. Fall is also the slow season for lumber demand. One thing to watch: Madison's reports that rising fuel surcharges on deliveries are now a sticking point between mills and buyers, so freight could push delivered prices up even if mill prices stay flat.

Sheet goods: OSB is the outlier

Panels tell a different story. In the same federal data, 7/16 inch oriented strand board (OSB) was $460 per thousand square feet for the week of October 2. That is up from $450 a week earlier, above the four week average of $409, and about 40% above the 52 week average of $328. Western plywood was steadier at $625, roughly 5% above its one year average.

Plywood and laminated wood from the United States carry the highest counter tariff rate, 50%. The data does not say how much of the OSB climb comes from tariffs and how much from supply and demand, but either way, subfloors, roof sheathing and basement wall sheathing cost more than they did in the summer.

Drywall and insulation: increases have landed

This is the clearest change since our first tariff post. A price notice posted September 18 by Consolidated Gypsum Supply, a Western Canadian distributor, lists increases from manufacturers that also supply Ontario:

• CGC: 9% on all gypsum board, effective October 1, and 9% to 25% on cement board, joint compound, tape and trims
• CertainTeed: 10% to 15% on standard and specialty board and finishing products, effective October 1
• Johns Manville: 10% on fibreglass batt and loose fill insulation, effective November 2

The same notice says several suppliers added tariff related surcharges on October 1, on top of those increases. Pricing varies by region and by dealer, so treat these as a signal and ask your own supplier what has changed locally.

Steel: the next increase is November 1

Statistics Canada's producer price report for August showed primary iron and steel products up 3.4% in a single month and 11.9% from a year earlier. That was before the counter tariffs began. The same notice above lists a 15% increase on all steel products from Bailey Metal Products, an Ontario maker of steel studs and track, effective November 1.

For a house renovation, steel shows up in studs for basement walls and bulkheads, corner bead, fasteners, ductwork and some fixtures. It is a small line on most quotes, but it is rising faster than anything else on this list.

Six practical moves for a winter renovation

• Ask how long a quote is good for. With increases dated October 1 and November 1, a quote from September may no longer match supplier prices. Thirty days is common right now.
• Buy drywall, insulation and steel early. Once you approve a quote, having those materials purchased before November 1 can lock in the current price. Make sure there is a dry place to store them.
• Do not rush to stockpile framing lumber. Prices are flat to lower, and lumber stored badly warps.
• Ask about wood studs versus steel studs. For many basement walls either works, and the price gap has shifted toward wood.
• Budget delivery separately. Fuel surcharges are rising, so one combined delivery beats three small ones.
• Keep a contingency. Setting aside an extra 10% or so for price changes is a sensible rule of thumb while tariffs are in flux.

The next hard numbers arrive on October 22, when Statistics Canada publishes producer prices for September, the first month with the counter tariffs in place. We will update this picture then. If you are planning a project this winter, we are happy to quote it with materials and labour shown separately so you can see exactly where the money goes.